Gartner Hype-Cycle 2012 – Cloud Computing
[Update: Summary of Gartner Hype Cycle 2012 on Emerging Technologies is also available - have a look.]
Let me read between the lines of Gartner Hype-Cycle for Cloud Computing – 2012. According to my reading this is what Gartner really wants to say. I agree with 4 of them, am doubtful about one and disagree with one.
4 Points that I agree with
Gartner has stated these points using a different language. I am being more direct.
Cloud Computing has started going down the “trough of disillusionment”!
After hovering in the “peak of inflated expectation” for last 3 years, cloud computing has started down the “trough of disillusionment”!
For the uninitiated, it is difficult to distinguish between what a real cloud offering is and what only has a label of cloud offering – an old wine in a new bottle.
Avoid treating Cloud as a solution in search of a problem
If you start looking at cloud are try to figure out where I can use it or you want to use cloud to reduce cost then your chances of success is less.
Instead, if you start from a business problem where can solve it more efficiently, your chances of success would be much higher.
Do not expect too much from Cloud Computing in next 2 years
In the priority matrix only 2 technologies are listed under “less than 2 years to mainstream”. They are:
- Virtulization
- Sales force automation SaaS
On the other hand there are 24 items listed under “2 to 5 years to mainstream”.
No traction for PaaS
Platform as a service is over hyped. There is a large gap between what is on offer and what enterprise customer expects.
One Point that I am doubtful about
Gartner prediction is very different from what Forrester had predicted
According to Gartner by 2016, IaaS and SaaS will have a market of similar size. On the other hand, Forrester had predicted that SaaS will about 80% of total cloud market share.
Who do you think is right?
 |
 |
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Gartner |
Forrester |
One Point that I think Gartner is wrong
Big Data would be BIG
Big Data will deliver transformational benefits to enterprises within 2 to 5 years, and by 2015 will enable enterprises adopting this technology to outperform competitors by 20% in every available financial metric.
I still think “Big Data” is a solution is search of a problem. We tend to assume that since there is so much data available there must be an underlying pattern and big data would help us uncover those patterns.
Two problems to this assumption:
- You may be fooled by randomness – see pattern where none exist
- The past pattern may not help you to predict the future – the world is changing too fast
- Moment you measure something you have changed it.
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I’m not sure if the IaaS numbers will be as good as Gartner predicts, but Forrester’s definitely look way too pessimistic to me.