Gartner Releases 2 Top 10 Predictions for 2013 - What are they really saying?

Posted by Udayan Banerjee on November 9, 2012 · 4 Comments 

Gartner has released 2 set of predictions for 2013 – back to back:

1. Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2013: Technologies and trends that will be strategic for most organizations in 2013
2. Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users for 2013 and Beyond: Economic risks, opportunities and innovations that will impel CIOs to move to the next generation of business-driven solutions

In short the first set of predictions are about technology and the second set of predictions are about business implication of technology. As you can expect, there are overlapping area.

What are they really saying?

Next Hype = Big Data, Internet of Things, Wearable Devices and Gamification

Big Data: By 2015, big data demand will reach 4.4 million jobs globally, but only one-third of those jobs will be filled. With the improvement of performance and costs, IT leaders can afford to perform analytics and simulation for every action taken in the business.

Internet of Things: Through 2014, software spending resulting from the proliferation of smart operational technology will increase by 25 percent

Wearable Devices: By 2016, wearable smart electronics in shoes, tattoos and accessories will emerge as a $10 billion industry

Gamification: By 2015, 40 percent of Global 1000 organizations will use gamification as the primary mechanism to transform business operations

My take:

• Big data may be a solution in search of a problem.
• Gamification is about tricking the user to … how long can it work?

Mobile Winner = Android, Chinese Handset Manufacturer —

Mobile Loser = Windows 8, two of (Samsung, Nokia, Apple or LG)

Windows 8: Through 2015, 90% of enterprises will bypass broad-scale deployment of Windows 8

Mobile Handset War: By Year-End 2014, three of the top five mobile handset vendors will be Chinese.

Mobile Beats PC: By 2013 mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide

My take:

• Windows 8 may emerge as the dark horse and do better than expected.
• Two among Samsung, Nokia, Apple or LG loosing out to Chinese handset manufacturer in next 2 years looks very unlikely.

Update:

• Looks like Gartner may be right about 3 of the 5 top mobile handset manufacturer being Chinese! (see this)

BYOD + Social Media = Big Security Threat

Data Leak Through Facebook: By 2017, 40 percent of enterprise contact information will have leaked into Facebook via employees’ increased use of mobile device collaboration applications.

Malware Proliferation Through BYOD: Through 2014, employee-owned devices will be compromised by malware at more than double the rate of corporate-owned devices.

My Take:

• Too bad — the trend is unstoppable.

Net Reduction of Offshoring — but — Asian Headquartered Companies Win

Protectionism: By 2014, European Union directives will drive legislation to protect jobs, reducing offshoring by 20 percent through 2016

Success of Asian Companies: By 2014, IT hiring in major Western markets will come predominantly from Asian-headquartered companies enjoying double-digit growth

Market Consolidation: By 2014, market consolidation will displace up to 20 percent of the top 100 IT services providers

My Take:

• Why is China always grouped with India for outsourcing when there is an order of magnitude difference in size of the industry in the two countries?

Other Technologies of Interest

HTML5 wins over Native Mobile Application: There will be a long term shift away from native apps to Web apps as HTML5 becomes more capable.

Personal Cloud: The personal cloud will gradually replace the PC as the location where individuals keep their personal content, access their services and personal preferences and center their digital lives.

Enterprise App Store: By 2014, many organizations will deliver mobile applications to workers through private application stores.

New Role of Cloud Service Brokerage: The internal cloud services brokerage (CSB) role is emerging as IT organizations realize that they have a responsibility to help improve the provisioning and consumption of inherently distributed, heterogeneous and often complex cloud services for their internal users and external business partners.

In Memory Computing: The possibility of concurrently running transactional and analytical applications against the same dataset opens unexplored possibilities for business innovation.

Integrated Ecosystems: The market is undergoing a shift to more integrated systems and ecosystems and away from loosely coupled heterogeneous approaches.

My Take:

• Reasonably realistic!

Udayan Banerjee on Google+

Related Articles:

• Gartner’s Top 10 Technology Trends For 2013 by Kristin Bent
• Gartner’s top ten tech trends for 2013 by Graeme Philipson
• Gartner: A Dozen IT Predictions For 2013 And Beyond by Eric Savitz in Forbes
• Gartner’s top 10 predictions for IT industry by Neha Pandey Deoras in Business Standard

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Filed under Trend · Tagged with Big data, Cloud Computing, Gartner, Gartner Prediction, Top 10 Technology Prediction, Windows 8