Will iPad Succeed

Will iPad succeed? We will know the answer to this question in few months time but I would like to put my neck out and apply one of my theories about why such devices succeed example – iPhone, iPod, Blackberry, Palm, Walkman etc.

For any new device to become very popular – it needs to satisfy at least one and possibly both the following criteria (elegant design is not one of them):

  • Does it have a new and very responsive user interaction mechanism suitable for the form factor on the device?
  • Does it allow user to perform one important task very effectively which was not easy to do with any of existing devices?

Here is list of successful devices:

Now let us evaluate iPad on these dimensions:

Does it have a new and very responsive user interaction mechanism suitable for the given form factor on the device?

  • Yes, it will have the same responsive figure touch as iPhone & iTouch
  • Yes, even after 3 years, no other device has been able to replicate the same experience (see an interesting discussion)
  • No, it is not new – it is 3 years old
  • No, finger touch zooming and panning is not as critical for a device with larger screen
  • No, it does not have any innovative user interface mechanism – nothing new in handwriting recognition – nothing new in voice input

Does it allow user to perform one important task very which was not easy to do with any of existing devices

  • No, nothing comes to mind immediately
  • May be, as an eBook reader – if users find reading in color vastly superior – better experience than current eBook readers like Amazon Kindle (see 2 comparisons – here and here)
  • May be, as an internet surfing device on the move – much larger screen than Smart Phone – faster booting than Netbook
  • May be, as a device to access applications in the cloud – can work in conjunction with Google Apps – bypassing Microsoft Office
  • May be, as gaming device – but will the size, the interface, the processing power be right for gaming
  • May be, for watching video – but connectivity may be an issue – no USB or DVD – no Flash
  • May be, in the hospital as many CIO’s have suggested – but it will be a niche not mass market (see CIOs say iPad and other slates have a place in business)
  • May be, in other specific enterprise situation like for airlines crew – but lack of multitasking can be a limiting factor

I searched Google with iPad will succeed (1,320,000 results) and iPad will fail (2,240,000 results) – wisdom of the crowd?


6 Responses to “Will iPad Succeed”
  1. pahariayogi says:

    I am not a tablet user but again looking at sales figure again, it looks like android based “Samsung galaxy tab” is fast catching up with i-pad in terms of market share in India & North America.

    Though the market/proce segment is different but on the side note, it looks other cheaper options like poorly known ‘Aakash’ tablet from Datawind, UK may also be the game changer in Indian tablet market in few months to come.
    However, actual reviews will come out only when it’s supply begins.


  2. Deepesh says:

    I really doubt that this one will fail..At least by looking at the sales reports coming out..


  3. Cool says:

    very interesting article, but for sure IPAD will succeed. now doubt about that unless some v bad luck happen with apple. i am keenly waiting for new iphone, read that it will be a new revolutionary device… let see ….


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