Gartner’s 11 IT Predictions for 2012 to 16 – What does it really mean?
Gartner release 11 IT Predictions for 2012 to 2016 on 1st December, 2011. It covers the usual gamut of technologies – Cloud, Social Media, Mobile, Outsourcing, IT Budget and Security. The new addition to this list is “Big Data”. (see this, this & this)
Typically, such predictions points to disruptions that may happen in the near future. This is what they are really trying to say.
1. China, India beware – your bread-and-butter market is going to shrink
“…by 2015, low-cost cloud services will cannibalize up to 15 percent of top outsourcing players’ revenue…”
“…by 2014, 20 percent of Asia-sourced finished goods and assemblies consumed in the U.S. will shift to the Americas…”
2. IT Manager – your importance is going to diminish – what are you going to do about it?
“…by 2015, 35 percent of enterprise IT expenditures for most organizations will be managed outside the IT department’s budget…”
3. It is Mobile … Mobile … Mobile all the way – do you have a strategy in place?
“…by 2016, at least 50 percent of enterprise email users will rely primarily on a browser, tablet or mobile client instead of a desktop client…”
“…by 2015, mobile application development projects targeting smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-to-1…”
4. Cloud Service providers – you need to prove how secure and green you are
“…by 2016, 40 percent of enterprises will make proof of independent security testing a precondition for using any type of cloud service…”
“…at year-end 2016, more than 50 percent of Global 1000 companies will have stored customer-sensitive data in the public cloud…”
“…through 2016, the financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10 percent per year, due to the continuing discovery of new vulnerabilities…”
“…by 2015, the prices for 80 percent of cloud services will include a global energy surcharge…”
5. Social Media is a Hype … but … Big Data is not
“…in 2013, the investment bubble will burst for consumer social networks and for enterprise social software companies in 2014…”
“…through 2015, more than 85 percent of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to effectively exploit big data for competitive advantage…”