11 Reasons Why Windows Phone will Overtake Android in next 3 Years

Please hold your skepticism, keep an open mind, go through the following point and only then pass a judgment on my prediction that “3 years down Windows Phone would have overtaken Android”

[Update August-2012: The 12th reason (Apple awarded 1 billion US$ but Microsoft wins)!]

(1) “Mango” has received very positive response

Just go through the following comments.

“… I say this with all seriousness and some incredulity: Apple, watch your back. Microsoft may have finally figured it out. The battle for the mobile market just got interesting again…” – Robert X. Cringely

“…With Mango, WP7 has caught up with Android and iOS in nearly every way, and in some areas it’s even surpassed the other two in functionality …” – Brad Molen

 “…Windows Phone 7.5 is supremely usable, surprisingly powerful and delivers the experience Microsoft has been promising, with only a few rough edges left…” – techradar.com

“…Windows Phone is, in my opinion, the second-best OS out there, after iOS. It’s more cohesive, reliable, pretty, and fast than Android…I have no hesitation in recommending it…” – Dan Nosowitz

“…Android doesn’t look as shiny and as for Apple, since our play, we certainly notice a lot more “Windows Phone 7 features” in the latest iOS 5 Beta builds…” – Stuart Miles

If you don’t believe me then just do your own searching – I am sure you will find comments very similar to these.

(2) Metro UI is innovative and usable

The UI is different but very well designed for mobile and tablet. The same view is expressed by most experts and most owners of “Mango” phone.

“…keep an open mind and you just might be pleasantly surprised by Microsoft’s elegant, daring, and simple take on smartphones…” – Jessica Dolcourt

 (3) Microsoft usability design is backed by strong research

I have discussed this elsewhere – Microsoft’s Second UI Innovation.

If you have doubt then just go through the presentation on How Ribbon Interface was created.

(4) Unlike Android UI, Metro UI has nothing in common with iOS

Google and Android handset manufacturers are fighting legal battles with Apple in so many different countries. These battles are prompted by similarity in the design and user interface.

“Mango” is different. If fact Microsoft has already secured a patent for the metro UI – Microsoft patents Metro UI. On the other hand Android is fighting so many patent and IP violation suits.

(5) It is a question of survival for Nokia

Even though Nokia has been steadily losing market share it still enjoys more than 20% market share of the number of mobile handsets shipped (see IDC report). RIM is also in a similar situation, but unlike RIM, Nokia has something decent to fight back with.

They have put all their eggs in the Windows Phone basket and they are not going to give in without a fight, especially in the non-US markets.

(6) Microsoft has patent agreement with handset manufacturer which lowers the barrier for switch

Microsoft has patent deals with HTC, Samsung and many other Android handset manufacturers and receives US$ 5 upwards for every handset sold. See this – Microsoft Getting Royalties From Over Half Of All US Android Phone Sales.

So, Android is not exactly free.

(7) Most users would have changed their handset in 3 years

One of the concerns expressed by many analysts is that Microsoft is late in the game and the mobile market is already crowded. However, history has taught us that the mobile landscape changes every 3 years. One of the top 3 players drop out to be replaced a newcomer. You also get a new leader.

Therefore, 3 years down the line the field is wide open.

(8) Windows 8, which has Metro UI, would have enough presence in desktop & laptop

In spite of all the prediction about the end of the PC era, you will almost surely be using a PC for many more years. You will also, periodically, continue to upgrade your PC and Laptop. Majority of those upgrades will result in your getting a Windows 8 machine.

As a result, 3 years down the line most of us would get reasonably familiar with Metro UI.

(9) Windows App store, by then, would have many more applications

By having the same programming model for desktop, laptop, tablet and mobile, Microsoft has ensured that app developers will always find a wider market for their applications. They are also offering developers a larger piece of the pie.

Microsoft fleshed out details for its Windows Store, announcing to developers that the Windows 8 app store will become available with the Windows 8 beta in late February 2012. (See this)

(10) Microsoft has an uncanny knack of persisting with, perfecting a product and become one of the market leaders

We have seen this happen time and again with so many different categories of products. The list is long – Word Processor (Word), Spreadsheet (Excel), Database (MS-SQL), Search Engine (Bing), O/S for handheld device (Windows CE), Enterprise web application platform (SharePoint), Enterprise mail server (Outlook), Development platform (.Net), Developer Studio (VSTS), Gaming Console (Kinect), Browser (IE), ERP (Dynamics) … (See this for more detail).

So, why can’t they pull it off again?

(11) Windows Phone is much more strategic to Microsoft than Android is to Google

Microsoft is primarily an O/S company and Google is a search company. If Google loses the mobile O/S war it is just another loss. It is not going to threaten the existence of the company. However, the same loss for Microsoft may threaten their very existence.

You don’t expect Microsoft to give in without a very very strong fight … especially when they have hit upon an innovative product with lots of promise.

Also, there is no Steve Jobs around who can completely change the game.

Here are 3 more reasons from Galen Gruman:

  1. No strong commitment to Android from Google
  2. No strong commitment to Android from device makers
  3. A likely loss in the Oracle lawsuit over Android’s Java base
23 Responses to “11 Reasons Why Windows Phone will Overtake Android in next 3 Years”
  1. Andrew Miller says:

    Can it still happen?

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  8. askmetoodude says:

    So it has been 3 years, it looks like you are far from correct

  9. i – OS7 will also schedule updates when your device is on and connected to Wi-Fi
    in order to conserve battery. Pull Pygmy from ape at last minute and cause tantrum, Ape smashes Pygmy in winch.
    Apple just launched a free i – OS update that adds ‘i – Cloud
    Keychain’ to i – OS 7 features, as well as fixes some bugs–including cures for motion sickness, according to an Oct 23 report in ‘USA Today’.

  10. Stefan Preisenstedt says:

    2014, and WP is still far below the others (except for Blackberry which committed suicide).
    Seems you were right…. NOOOT. Funny to read your article today anyways:)

    • Udayan Banerjee says:

      I agree with you … predicting the future is always hazardous … sometimes it can turn out to be very hilarious 🙂

  11. brokenthorn says:

    And Canonical is trying to get companies to adopt Ubuntu on Android by marketing “a full desktop on your mobile device” [docked], saying things like having a PIM, a web browser, a mail client and a [crappy] office “productivity” suite. Like those don’t already exist on Android… or iOS or WP or Blackberry. What’s stopping WP8 from working just like a tablet OS once you dock your phone and output to HDMI? Nothing. Win8 looks to be much more consistent overall and that’s what consumers like. A consistent experience. Not like Android with dozens of manufacturer UI customizations and whatnot that mostly suck. You don’t know *which phone to buy!* — Not with Windows 8. I’m very excited about this. It took me 6 years to move back to Windows from Linux but I was happy I did when I did it and now I’m even happier to see what great things are coming.

  12. Yogendra says:

    Nice to know abt Windows Phones from you. But, for price sensitive buyer, android based phone may offer better value for money. Plus, they will have ability to download free aps from google market.

  13. Shock Me says:

    I would rather see Metro succeed instead of Android, if Microsoft stays in the game I think they will fall on the right strategy eventually.

  14. You had me at usable!!!!

  15. Nitin Garg says:

    Good to hear good about WM OS. However, I am expecting more Android powered gadgets around me them Windows powered. I think that M2M will decide the future of Mobile OS.

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