Technology Adoption – 2 beliefs you need to undo
Here is further proof that “Consumerization of IT” (CoIT) is a reality. And, that has significantly altered the dynamics of technology adoption. Before I explain this shift, let us look at…
How experts explain technology adoption cycle
The accepted premise is that every new technology goes through the following phases:
- Hype: Search for next big thing leads to Hype around any new technology.
- Struggle: Adoption of these Bleeding Edge technologies depended on the Visionaries who had the vision, energy and money to make it work.
- Success: Mainstream adoption required convincing the Pragmatists who needed success stories and support system around the technology.
Not all technologies made it to mainstream. All these are from the perspective of an enterprise. Consumers had very little role to play in this lifecycle. This underlying theme comes out in both the “Hype Cycle” model used by Gartner since 1995 and the “Technology Adoption Lifecycle” model popularized by Everett Rogers and Geoffrey Moore.
Though the curve looks different and one is plotting “Expectation” and the other is plotting “Adoption Rate” against time, both of them are based on the same three basic premises I had stated earlier. But do we have evidence to support these theories?
What does past Gartner Hype Cycle data say?
If this pattern of technology adoption is true then most of the technologies that find a place in the “Slope of Enlightenment” should have, in the past, appeared in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”. Let us see if this is really the case.
If you examine the Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies of 2011 you will see that 7 technologies are listed under “Climbing the Slope of Enlightenment”.
- Consumerization – appeared directly in “Slope of Enlightenment” in 2011
- QR/Color Code – appeared directly in “Slope of Enlightenment” in 2011
- Idea Management – first appeared in “Trough of Disillusionment” in 2007
- Biometric Authentication Methods – appeared directly in “Slope of Enlightenment” in 2010
- Mobile Application Stores – first appeared in “Trough of Disillusionment” in 2010
- Predictive Analytics – appeared directly in “Slope of Enlightenment” in 2010
- Speech Recognition
So, 6 of the 7 technologies NEVER crossed the left “Peak of Inflated Expectations”. Only exception is “Speech Recognition”. That means only of 1 these 7 technologies have ever been hyped up!
Since looking at only one year data is too small a sample size, let us look at the data over a 5 year period. Between 2007 and 2011, total 15 distinct technologies appeared under “Climbing the Slope of Enlightenment”. Out of this list of 15 only 3 (Tablet PC, Electronic Ink/Digital Paper and Wikis) ever appeared in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”. Again the hit rate is 1 in 5! Therefore…
Lesson #1: Successful technologies are NOT likely to be hyped up!
Now, let us look at the full list of 15 technologies…
The list of 15 technologies that found a place in Slope of Enlightenment
Technology |
Climbing the slope |
First Appeared in |
Enterprise Instant Messaging |
2007 |
“Sliding through the trough” on 2006 |
Basic Web Services |
2008 |
Appeared directly |
SOA |
2008 |
“Sliding through the trough” on 2004 |
Tablet PC |
2008 |
2003 or earlier |
Corporate Blogging |
2009 |
“Sliding through the trough” on 2008 |
Electronic Paper |
2009 |
2003 or earlier |
Wikis |
2009 |
2004 |
Biometric Authentication Methods |
2010 |
Appeared directly |
Interactive TV |
2010 |
“Sliding through the trough” on 2010 |
Internet Micropayment Systems |
2010 |
Appeared directly |
Predictive Analytics |
2010 |
Appeared directly |
Consumerization |
2011 |
Appeared directly |
Idea Management |
2011 |
“Sliding through the trough” on 2007 |
Mobile Application Stores |
2011 |
“Sliding through the trough” on 2010 |
QR/Color Code |
2011 |
Appeared directly |
6 of the 15 technologies did not even “slide through the trough” and directly started “climbing the slope of enlightenment”. If you look at the 2011 hype cycle the number is even starker – it is 4 out of 7! Majority of these technologies, when they enter the radar of the enterprise, has already been adopted by the consumer. Though, enterprise success stories may not be available but the kinks around the technologies would have already been sorted out by the consumers. Since your consumer may already be using these technologies, they may become very important channel to reach out to your customers. Therefore…
Lesson #2: Waiting for success stories will leave the field open for your competitors!
Consumerization of IT and its implications
- What Is Consumerization Of It?
- Why is Consumerization of IT happening now?
- Impact on Enterprise Technology Life-cycle Management
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Amazing! Looking forward to it, keep doing what your doing! It inspires me to do my own!
Reblogged this on Data Center Infrastructure & Critical Facility News.
Check out the price of Bitcoin, it fits your model nicely
Yes, Bitcoin looks interesting – here is the Wikipedia link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin
Thanks for the intersting article. I like the way you applied Geoffrey Moore’s http://www.geoffreyamoore.com work to your concepts. I wonder how voice technology will fare with all the flack that the Siri commercials are getting. Thanks again.
It is a good question worth investigating.
BTW: Speech Recognition has been appearing in Gartner Hype cycle for last 10 years.
Overlaying the hype cycle on the actual consumer adoption is a smart way for organizations to make decisions, once they know what their needs really are. Not to be too technical, but the placement of the hype is out-of-scale and misrepresents the plateau which actually happens earlier on in the adoption (pending the technology…)
On closer examination of the diagram, I do agree with you that “plateau” should start much nearer to the peak of adoption.
I wonder if the fact that consumerization was imposed on IT rather than adopted by it plays a part in this?
You are probably right. Take the case of BYOD – IT really did not have much of a choice.
Indeed. The fact that a choice might be wanted speaks volumes.